The UNEP even provided a handy map. The map shows us the places most at risk including the very sensitive low lying islands of the Pacific and Caribbean.
It so happens that just a few of these islands and other places most at risk have since had censuses, so it should be possible for us now to get some idea of the devastating impact climate change is having on their populations. Let’s have a look at the evidence:
Nassau, The Bahamas – The 2010 national statistics recorded that the population growth increased to 353,658 persons in The Bahamas. The population change figure increased by 50,047 persons during the last 10 years.
The island-nation of Saint Lucia recorded an overall household population increase of 5 percent from May 2001 to May 2010 based on estimates derived from a complete enumeration of the population of Saint Lucia during the conduct of the recently completed 2010 Population and Housing Census.
Population 2002, 81755
Population 2010, 88311
The latest Solomon Islands population has surpassed half a million – that’s according to the latest census results.
It’s been a decade since the last census report, and in that time the population has leaped 100-thousand.
Meanwhile, far from being places where people are fleeing, no fewer than the top six of the very fastest growing cities in China, Shenzzen, Dongguan, Foshan, Zhuhai, Puning and Jinjiang, are absolutely smack bang within the shaded areas identified as being likely sources of climate refugees.
Similarly, many of the fastest growing cities in the United States also appear within or close to the areas identified by the UNEP as at risk of having climate refugees.
More censuses are due to come in this year, and we await the results for Bangladesh and the Maldives – said to be places most at risk – with interest.
However, a very cursory look at the first available evidence seems to show that the places identified by the UNEP as most at risk of having climate refugees are not only not losing people, they are actually among the fastest growing regions in the world.
(Footnote: As requested, credit goes to the cartographer of the UNEP map, Emmanuelle Bournay.)
UPDATE: What’s it all about then? Find the response from the UNEP here and a theory as to why they were so keen about the 50 million refugees claim.
UPDATE: Some other published reactions to the story.
UPDATE: A little background about the claim.
The insistence on complete certainty about the full details of global warming–the most serious threat we have ever faced–is actually an effort to avoid facing the awful, uncomfortable truth: that we must act boldly, decisively, comprehensively, and quickly, even before we know every last detail about the crisis. Those who continue to argue that the appropriate response is merely additional research are simply seeking to camouflage timidity or protect their vested interest in the status quo.
AL GORE, Earth in the Balance
Meanwhile back in reality, we are facing the coldest winter on record. It has snowed several times in Florida and Miami saw freezing temperatures. I guess it’s a good thing these global warming dumbasses “acted boldly and decisively” or Florida might be covered in water from all the melting glaciers.
Five centuries ago, a German priest challenged the reigning theological “consensus” about the clerical sale of indulgences, unraveling one of the great religious scams in history and inspiring the Protestant Reformation.
This month, a senior American physicist challenged the reigning scientific “consensus” about global warming. His action may prove to be the unraveling one of the great scientific mistakes in history and the beginning of a greatly needed reformation of the scientific community.
Revulsion over fraud
Just as Martin Luther paid the price for his dissent, Dr. Harold Lewis is experiencing a sharp backlash in the wake of his Oct. 6 resignation letter from the prestigious American Physical Society (APS). After 67 years as a member, Dr. Lewis – emeritus professor of physics and former department chairman at the University of California, Santa Barbara – parted ways because of his “revulsion” over the climate change “fraud” perpetrated by what he felt was science distorted by money.
Other esteemed scientists have in recent years put forward compelling critiques of the technical and scientific case for anthropogenic climate change. Dr. Lewis’s resignation letter is not such a critique. Rather, it is a condemnation of the way ideology, politics, and money have suppressed dissenting viewpoint and distorted the very nature of scientific inquiry. Like the so-called Climategate controversy, in which hacked emails from a group of climate scientists revealed political and personal factors influencing scientific work, Lewis’ letter lays bare the less-than-noble motivations that seem to be driving discussion of climate-change research today.
The APS position: ‘incontrovertible’
To understand Lewis’s letter, you first have to understand the APS position on climate change. The APS, like several other major scientific organizations, supports the theory of man-caused global warming. Its official statement from 2007 read, in part: “The evidence is incontrovertible: Global warming is occurring. If no mitigating actions are taken, significant disruptions in the Earth’s physical and ecological systems, social systems, security and human health are likely to occur. We must reduce emissions of greenhouse gases beginning now…. The APS also urges governments, universities, national laboratories and its membership to support policies and actions that will reduce the emission of greenhouse gases.”
This statement troubled Lewis deeply. These key excerpts from Lewis’s resignation letter explain why:
“[T]he money flood has become the raison d’être of much physics research, the vital sustenance of much more, and it provides the support for untold numbers of professional jobs. For reasons that will soon become clear my former pride at being an APS Fellow all these years has been turned into shame, and I am forced, with no pleasure at all, to offer you my resignation from the Society.
It is of course, the global warming scam, with the (literally) trillions of dollars driving it, that has corrupted so many scientists, and has carried APS before it like a rogue wave. It is the greatest and most successful pseudoscientific fraud I have seen in my long life as a physicist. Anyone who has the faintest doubt that this is so should force himself to read the ClimateGate documents, which lay it bare…. I don’t believe that any real physicist, nay scientist, can read that stuff without revulsion.
1. About a year ago a few of us sent an e-mail on the subject to a fraction of the membership. APS ignored the issues, but the then President immediately launched a hostile investigation of where we got the e-mail addresses. In its better days, APS used to encourage discussion of important issues, and indeed the Constitution cites that as its principal purpose. No more. Everything that has been done in the last year has been designed to silence debate
2. The appallingly tendentious APS statement on Climate Change was apparently written in a hurry by a few people over lunch, and is certainly not representative of the talents of APS members as I have long known them. So a few of us petitioned the Council to reconsider it. One of the outstanding marks of (in)distinction in the Statement was the poison word incontrovertible, which describes few items in physics, certainly not this one. In response APS appointed a secret committee that never met, never troubled to speak to any skeptics, yet endorsed the Statement in its entirety. (They did admit that the tone was a bit strong, but amazingly kept the poison word incontrovertible to describe the evidence, a position supported by no one.)…
3. In the interim the ClimateGate scandal broke into the news, and the machinations of the principal alarmists were revealed to the world. It was a fraud on a scale I have never seen, and I lack the words to describe its enormity. Effect on the APS position: none. None at all. This is not science; other forces are at work.
4. So a few of us tried to bring science into the act (that is, after all, the alleged and historic purpose of APS), and collected the necessary 200+ signatures to bring to the Council a proposal for a Topical Group on Climate Science, thinking that open discussion of the scientific issues, in the best tradition of physics, would be beneficial to all, and also a contribution to the nation….
5. To our amazement, Constitution be damned, you declined to accept our petition….
APS management has gamed the problem from the beginning, to suppress serious conversation about the merits of the climate change claims. Do you wonder that I have lost confidence in the organization?…
Some have held that the physicists of today are not as smart as they used to be, but I don’t think that is an issue. I think it is the money, exactly what Eisenhower warned about a half-century ago. There are indeed trillions of dollars involved, to say nothing of the fame and glory (and frequent trips to exotic islands) that go with being a member of the club…. As the old saying goes, you don’t have to be a weatherman to know which way the wind is blowing. Since I am no philosopher, I’m not going to explore at just which point enlightened self-interest crosses the line into corruption, but a careful reading of the ClimateGate releases makes it clear that this is not an academic question.
I want no part of it, so please accept my resignation. APS no longer represents me, but I hope we are still friends.
This is an important moment in science history. I would describe it as a letter on the scale of Martin Luther, nailing his 95 Theses to the Wittenburg church door.
Lewis is no lightweight
Most people don’t know who Lewis is. He’s a quiet man, and he hasn’t sought publicity in his career. He was a student of Robert Oppenheimer, “father” of the atomic bomb, and was active in the field of safety of nuclear power plants, where being wrong had grave consequences. He worked with (the late) noted climatologist Stephen Schneider when he chaired a 1985 task force on nuclear winter.
In short, he’s no lightweight, and he’s well respected in the field of physics.
Lewis and 260 other members of APS signed a petition, and battled within the organization, following the APS constitutional rules, in an attempt to get the APS position statement on global warming considered for revision. The effort was ignored, stonewalled, and rebuked. After years of trying, he finally had enough.
Lewis must have been wrestling with his conscience for a considerable time before concluding that resignation was his only option.
And like Luther, with all other options extinguished, he figuratively nailed his letter to the door of the organization that had become so entrenched in its own consensus that it couldn’t even address the concerns of its own members.
Luther’s brave act started the Reformation of the Catholic church. Lewis’s act could very well begin the reformation of climate science.
From a crowd that preaches “tolerance” they certainly don’t seem to tolerate dissent very well. Even when the mountain of evidence has PROVEN global warming to be man made, a man made complete fabrication.
“Sadly we need disasters like this (BP oil spill) to show people. Some people don’t believe in climate warming – like those who don’t believe there was a Holocaust.” – Paul McCartney
Newsflash Paul, the facts don’t support global warming (now conveniently called climate change) or the “holocaust”. If there were mountains of evidence supporting the jewish side of the holocaust story why then is it illegal to question it?
It is literally illegal and punishable by years in prison for “denying” the holocaust, yet you are encouraged (by academia and pop culture) to deny the Son of God. What a perverse world we live in today.
Climatology which thanks to the internet has been COMPLETELY debunked, is still touted around as fact and those that think differently are demonized. With the power of the internet though we show these people for the fools that they are and no longer are the words from their mouths taken as the gospel truth.
Water Lines May Freeze
Probably one of the most serious problems this winter will be FROZEN UNDERGROUND WATER LINES. For many decades in northern areas water lines are buried 42″ or more to prevent freezing when the ground freezes solid. Water lines in the southern USA are not buried anywhere near that deep with some less than 12″ deep. Running water will not freeze, so people may need to keep a tap running slowly somewhere in the house, maybe for the entire winter. People will have to choose between a high water bill or no running water if the ground starts to freeze deep.
An unmistakable bite of Arctic air is what the northeast and many places in the USA suffer with right now. Here in the northeast we experienced January temperatures a month early. There is a recognizable signature with Arctic air – bitter cold, wicked wind chills complete with just enough humidity to cut through your coat like a knife. Other than that it’s nice outside.
I’ve been quietly watching local weather which has hovered around the teens in the northeast for the past few weeks. In December and early January, temperatures usually hover around the 20’s or even 30’s. But not this winter – it’s been much colder.
So what’s happening across the United States? If the average annual temperature has been rising a few degrees according to global warming experts, will that explain temperatures more than TEN degrees colder than in the past?
The logic behind warming must be truly unfathomable. Perhaps we need to use some of that “new math” which has intelligent college students believing 2 + 2 = 5. Of course, the warming science vehicle has already had the tires shot out from under it by hacker exposure.
CNN recently posted an article about incredible cold happening everywhere.
* In Florida there is a state of emergency as crops are threatened by bitter cold. Enjoy that fresh squeezed orange juice you have right now – this year orange juice might be worth more than gold. Weight limits for big farm trucks are being lifted to permit as much of the orange and grapefruit crops to be harvested as possible. You might want to stock up your freezer with frozen juice as an alternative. You can sell it to your neighbors later at a hefty profit!
* Low-temperature records in many states are being broken while temperatures continue to fall. Clearly global warming is making everything colder.
* St. Louis, Missouri may see temperatures fall below zero for the first time since 1999.
* Little Rock could see temperatures of +10F with a wind-chill of –20F four days from now according to the National Weather Service.
* Thursday and Friday will get hot in Dallas – as temperatures reach a balmy high of +20F. National Weather Service has said that consecutive days of cold in Dallas like this haven’t happened since 1998.
* Northern plains will see wind-chills of –20F to –30F.
* CNN meteorologist Rob Marciano says the “length of this cold snap is unusual.”
* Atlantic, Iowa broke a 1958 record when temperatures dropped to –29F.
* Kansas City, MO already dropped to +1F and froze a homeless man to death.
* A dusting of snow is expected in Atlanta, GA.
* There have been four cold-related deaths in Tennessee.
And there’s more:
“Some hard freeze warnings were also in effect in Louisiana and parts of the state could see temperatures drop into the 20s, some of the coldest weather in the area since 1996, CNN affiliate WWL in New Orleans, Louisiana, reported.
Supplies for protecting pipes from freezing were disappearing from area stores, CNN affiliate WDSU reported. It forced some to discuss other options – like wrapping pipes in newspaper and covering it in plastic, WDSU reported.
Hard freeze warnings were in effect Tuesday morning for much of northern Florida and parts of other Gulf Coast states, according to the National Weather Service.”
Read the Full Article Here